Continual learning with a Bayesian approach for evolving the baselines of a leagile project portfolio

This article introduces a Bayesian learning approach for planning continuously evolving leagile project and portfolio baselines. Unlike the traditional project management approach, which uses static project baselines, the approach proposed in this study suggests learning from immediately prior experience to establish an evolving baseline for performance estimation. The principle of Pasteur’s quadrant is used to realize a highly practical solution, which extends the existing wisdom on leagile continuous planning. This study compares the accuracy of the proposed Bayesian approach with the traditional approach using real data. The results suggest that the evolving Bayesian baselines can generate a more realistic measure of performance than traditional baselines, enabling leagile projects and portfolios to be better managed in the continuously changing environments of today

Risk Factors Associated with Frozen Shoulder among Nepalese Population: A Hospital-based Comparative Study

Introduction: Frozen shoulder is one of the common musculoskeletal disorders characterized by pain and restriction of motion of the shoulder joint. It is also considered a common self-limiting regional skeletal problem. This study aimed to evaluate related risk factors for frozen shoulders. Methods: This was a hospital-based comparative study involving 60 patients with a diagnosed frozen shoulder in the out-patient department as cases and 60 patients hospitalized during the same period with non-shoulder-related complaints as controls. A face-to-face interview was taken. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: A total of 120 consecutive subjects (60 patients with frozen shoulders and 60 controls) were taken. The mean age of cases was 54.7±3.21 years and that of controls was 42.08±2.74 years. Among the frozen shoulder patients, 33.3% had diabetes and 15% had a history of thyroid disorder. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed age, diabetes mellitus, and thyroid dysfunction as independent risk factors for frozen shoulder (p<0.05). The frozen shoulder patients also had a higher prevalence of cardiac diseases and cervical spondylosis than the controls. No significant difference was found in body mass index, cholecystitis, history of surgical intervention, and uric acid level between the frozen shoulder group and the control group. Conclusions: The study findings indicated that diabetes, thyroid disease, and advanced age have been significantly associated with increased frozen shoulders

Deep Learning for Vision-Based Fall Detection System: Enhanced Optical Dynamic Flow

Accurate fall detection for the assistance of older people is crucial to reduce incidents of deaths or injuries due to falls. Meanwhile, a vision-based fall detection system has shown some significant results to detect falls. Still, numerous challenges need to be resolved. The impact of deep learning has changed the landscape of the vision-based system, such as action recognition. The deep learning technique has not been successfully implemented in vision-based fall detection systems due to the requirement of a large amount of computation power and the requirement of a large amount of sample training data. This research aims to propose a vision-based fall detection system that improves the accuracy of fall detection in some complex environments such as the change of light condition in the room. Also, this research aims to increase the performance of the pre-processing of video images. The proposed system consists of the Enhanced Dynamic Optical Flow technique that encodes the temporal data of optical flow videos by the method of rank pooling, which thereby improves the processing time of fall detection and improves the classification accuracy in dynamic lighting conditions. The experimental results showed that the classification accuracy of the fall detection improved by around 3% and the processing time by 40 to 50ms. The proposed system concentrates on decreasing the processing time of fall detection and improving classification accuracy. Meanwhile, it provides a mechanism for summarizing a video into a single image by using a dynamic optical flow technique, which helps to increase the performance of image pre-processing steps.Comment: 16 page

The COVID‐19 Pandemic Not Only Poses Challenges, but Also Opens Opportunities for Sustainable Transformation

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted social, economic, and environmental systems worldwide, slowing down and reversing the progress made in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDGs belong to the 2030 Agenda to transform our world by tackling humankind's challenges to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. We explore the potential impacts of the pandemic on SDGs for Nepal. We followed a knowledge co-creation process with experts from various professional backgrounds, involving five steps: online survey, online workshop, assessment of expert's opinions, review and validation, and revision and synthesis. The pandemic has negatively impacted most SDGs in the short term. Particularly, the targets of SDG 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 13 have and will continue to have weakly to moderately restricting impacts. However, a few targets of SDG 2, 3, 6, and 11 could also have weakly promoting impacts. The negative impacts have resulted from impeding factors linked to the pandemic. Many of the negative impacts may subside in the medium and long terms. The key five impeding factors are lockdowns, underemployment and unemployment, closure of institutions and facilities, diluted focus and funds for non-COVID-19-related issues, and anticipated reduction in support from development partners. The pandemic has also opened a window of opportunity for sustainable transformation, which is short-lived and narrow. These opportunities are lessons learned for planning and action, socio-economic recovery plan, use of information and communication technologies and the digital economy, reverse migration and “brain gain,” and local governments' exercising authorities

Factors influencing the use of consulting foresters by non-industrial private forest landowners in Mississippi

This study describes landowners’ willingness to hire consulting foresters and compares forest management expenses between the 1990s (1995-1997) and 2015. Two thousand and ten Mississippi non-industrial private forest (NIPF) landowners were selected randomly from a tax roll mail list maintained by Mississippi State University. Participants were surveyed to identify the characteristics of those landowners willing to hire consultants and compared the landowners’ participation in forestry-related activities during the 1990s and 2015. Results indicated three fourth of the survey participants were not willing to use a consultant to manage their forest land. However, consultant fees have increased from the 1990s to 2015. Landowners with larger forest tracts, higher incomes, and higher education levels were more likely to hire consultants. In contrast, age was negatively correlated with willingness to hire a consultant. These findings would be helpful in designing and implementing more effective policy instruments, and improving landowners’ participation in forest management

Decentralized Energy Generation in Nepal

The paper conveys information and research work regarding decentralized energy generation in Nepal using a renewable source of energy that can contribute toward economic, environmental, and social prosperity in developing countries like Nepal. An advancement with electrical technology and day to day life of human beings has been an inseparable part of the economic, environmental, and social development of a country. Unfortunately, most of the electrical consumer relies on different nonrenewable sources like fossil fuels and coal which can create an adverse impact on the environment. With the increment in use of non-renewable sources can cause different issues like increase in harmful greenhouse gases i.e., carbon dioxide and methane, water pollution, land pollution and other research questions. For the sole purpose of creating sustainable decentralized energy, the given thesis research about different renewable alternatives to those non-renewable energy sources for advanced ecological sustainability

Comparison of the Timber Management Expenses of Non-Industrial Private Forest Landowners in Mississippi, United States: Results from 1995–1997 and 2015

Forest landowner activities change over the lifespan of the forest and ownership cycle. Patterns of change emerge which suggest the evolving nature of forest landownership and Non-industrial Private Forest (NIPF) landowners’ interest in their land. The objective of this study was to examine trends in NIPF landowners’ distribution of forestry expenses in their management activities over time. First, 2010 Mississippi NIPF landowners were randomly selected from a property tax roll list. Our analysis compared study results of Arano et al. (2002) with a 2016 survey that was conducted by the authors of this paper. Both studies drew on assessments of timber management expenditures that were conducted on behalf of a state government department of revenue to determine ad valorem taxes for forest land. As such, both studies contained similar survey questions with 12 forestry-related activities grouped into four major categories: (1) Fees for Professional Services (e.g., consulting foresters, surveyors), (2) Timber Management Expenditures (e.g., site preparation, planting), (3) Other Management Expenditures (e.g., road construction), and (4) Property Taxes. Like the 2002 article, results here are presented as descriptive statistics. In both survey cycles, Timber Management Expenditures represented the largest component of annual expenditures in both the 1990s and 2015. The largest decrease in reported expenditures occurred for Other Management Expenditures. By broadly describing differences in expenditures over time, this study provides insights into the involvement of NIPF landowners in management activities on forest land such as reforestation after final harvest, thinning, and timber stand improvement, which can impact forest products’ supply over time

Forest Management Practices and Costs for Family Forest Landowners in Georgia, USA

Forests owned by individuals and family landowners account for about two-thirds of Georgia’s private forests. This study provides a snapshot of the status and trend of forest management practices of Georgia family forest landowners and the unit costs associated with significant management activities through a survey of the consulting foresters practicing in the state. Family forest landowners increasingly managed pines intensively with various management regimes. Hardwood and mixed forests accounted for more than half of Georgia’s private forests, but they were mainly managed in a custodial manner. Besides receiving revenue from timber sales, many landowners in Georgia received additional income from hunting leases and selling pine straw. The results have important implications for the financial returns of timber investment and the long-term timber supply of the state. It also provides essential information to county assessors for fair and equitable timberland valuation for property tax purposes

Study of cropping system characterization, seed production and storage practices of rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Lamjung, Nepal

This study was carried out in Harrabot village of Tarkughat VDC, Paundi and Majuwa village of Sundarbazar Municipality of Lamjung district during 2015/2016. Thirty households (10 HH from each village) who were involved in seed production were purposively selected for survey. The respondents’ knowledge was gathered through focus group discussions and household surveys, using a pretested semi-structured questionnaire. Seed routine test was carried out in the Agronomy lab of Lamjung Campus. Results revealed that the dominant features of farming in the study areas were small land holdings, fragmented and sloping land with rainfall-dependent farming. Land distribution pattern was 12.93% marginal land, 16.35% upland and 70.72% irrigated lowland. Farmers grew rice, maize, mustard and pulses as major crops and fruits, vegetables, potato and flowers as minor crops. Major cropping pattern were Rice-Mustard-Maize, Maize-Rice-Fallow, Rice-Fallow-Rice etc. Nutrient-poor soils, low pH, farmers' poor access to inorganic fertilizers, soil-depleting cropping patterns, lack of technical knowledge on crop management, soil erosion and degradation are major challenges. Insects, diseases and weeds were major biotic constraints, while lack of irrigation, drought and lack of technical support were major abiotic constraints of rice production. Sukhadhan-2, Sukhadhan-3, Sukhadhan-4, Sukhadhan-5 and Sukhadhan-6 were planted in rain-fed lowland, whereas Ramdhan, Sunaulo sugandha, Loktantra, Sabitri and Makwanpur-1 were grown in irrigated lowland. Seed producers used 39.07% of the land for seed production with 4.78 tons ha-1 of seed productivity. Most of their produced seed was send to Sundar Seed Coop Ltd., Paudibazar, while some seed were stored in their home by using local containers such as earthen pots, plastic drums, metal bins, Dali, Kotho, Bhakari etc. The tested seed quality parameter in the lab showed that the average moisture, purity and germination percentage of the seed samples were 13.87%, 94.13% and 96.72%, respectively

Data from: Ecological correlates of Himalayan musk deer Moschus leucogaster

Himalayan musk deer (Moschus leucogaster; hereafter musk deer) are endangered as a result of poaching and habitat loss. The species is nocturnal, crepuscular and elusive, making direct observation of habitat use and behavior difficult. However, musk deer establish and repeatedly use the same latrines for defecation. To quantify musk deer habitat correlates, we used observational spatial data based on presence-absence of musk deer latrines, as well as a range of fine spatial-scale ecological covariates. To determine presence-absence of musk deer, we exhaustively searched randomly selected forest trails using a 20-m belt transect in different study sites within the Neshyang Valley in the Annapurna Conservation Area. Subsequently, study sites were classified as habitat or non-habitat for musk deer. A total of 252 plots, 20×20 m were systematically established every 100 m along 51 transects (each ~0.5km long) laid out at different elevations to record a range of ecological habitat variables. We used mixed-effect models and principal component analysis to characterize relationships between deer presence-absence data and habitat variables. We confirmed musk deer use latrines in forests located at higher elevations (3200 - 4200 m) throughout multiple seasons and years. Himalayan birch (Betula utilis) dominated forest, mixed Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) and birch forest were preferred over pure Himalayan fir and blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) forest. Greater crown cover and shrub diversity were associated with the presence of musk deer whereas tree height, diameter and diversity were weakly correlated. Topographical attributes including aspect, elevation, distance to water source, and slope were also discriminated by musk deer. Over- and under-story forest management can be used to protect forests likely to have musk deer as predicted by the models to ensure long-term conservation of this rare deer